There is a general belief that in the U.S., whoever gets the most votes wins the election. This is not true in Presidential elections because of the electoral college. President Trump received about 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but still became President.
But it has also not been true with state elections. Because of gerrymandering, the majority of voters can support one party only to have the other party win most of the offices. In four competitive “swing” states in 2018, Democrats received the majority of votes for the state legislature but Republicans won the majority of delegates elected, taking control.
In Wisconsin in 2018, for example, Democrats running for state assembly received 190,000 more votes than their Republican opponents but only realized only 36 of 99 seats. North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania experienced similar results. All are critical swing states.
Who Will Be President?
Both Democrats and Republicans have a history of ‘stealing’ elections and thwarting the electorate’s preferences. However, the Republicans seem to be more proficient at this than Democrats.
So how could the Republicans ‘steal’ the Presidency and award victory to Donald Trump even if he does not win a majority of electoral votes?
The President has already disclosed the plan in public statements. The steps are fairly clear.
- Declare mail-in ballots are fraudulent. If Biden wins the vote in key states but his margin of victory is less than Biden’s mail-in votes, the Republicans will file suits alleging ballot fraud. The lawyers are already prepositioned in the likely states and will have the lawsuits ready to go. The Democrats will file countersuits, but resolving whether each and every mail-in ballot is qualified will take a long time and may not be resolved before the formal state certifications required December 14 or the Jan 6, 2021 deadline for electors to certify to Congress the election results.
- The Democrats will appeal to the Supreme Court to intervene, arguing Biden clearly won the election and there is no proof of fraud. The Supreme Court with its newest member, may well offer a strict interpretation of the Constitution and decline to intervene indicating the individual states need to decide.
- With controversy continuing within swing states, the Republican state legislatures could appoint their own electors, which would likely support Trump. 8 of 9 states considered competitive have Republican-dominated legislatures. In those states where there is a Democrat Governor, he may try to appoint electors causing further confusion unlikely to be resolved before January 6.
- In this event with some states not represented, it is unlikely Biden or Trump will receive the required 270 elector votes on Jan. 6. The election then goes to the House of Representatives to decide, and each state delegation has one vote. There are 26 states with majority Republican Congressmen and Democrats lead in 22 states. Also, Trump is expected to win the majority of states on election night. Trump would be the likely designated winner by the House.
Trump Will Win Again In These Scenarios
For Trump to win despite a clear Biden electoral victory, all the Republicans have to do is tie up the counting of mail-in ballots until Jan. 6, have a compliant Supreme Court to decline involvement, and have Republican elected representatives value party victory over voter intentions.
Clearly, the plans are being prepared and the rush to add a Supreme Court Justice who is a strict constitutionalist before the election is likely a key part of the plan. And the Republicans have a history of valuing party victories over voter preferences.
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